Study on labor and skilled workers as well as population development

(CIMA Institute for Regional Economics, Ltd., Hanover, November 2025)

The semiconductor industry in northern Dresden is poised for a period of strong growth. With the creation of several thousand new jobs and the establishment of additional supplier and service companies, this development will have a noticeable impact on the entire Dresden region. This will be accompanied by an increasing influx of workers and skilled personnel, as well as their families.

This dynamic presents new challenges for the cities and municipalities in the Dresden region. Against this backdrop, it was necessary to obtain reliable insights at an early stage regarding the future influx of workers and skilled professionals, to analyze their spatial distribution, and to identify potential household structures. This study lays the groundwork for that.

Objective of the Study
The objective of the study is to conduct a comprehensive and spatially differentiated analysis of the quantitative and qualitative impacts of the expansion of the semiconductor industry in northern Dresden within the study area comprising the 96 potential cities and municipalities of the Dresden region. The focus is exclusively on the additional effects resulting from the current and planned expansion of the Dresden semiconductor cluster. Existing companies, planned employment relationships, and the regional economic impacts of the semiconductor industry that are already in effect are not taken into account.

Study Findings
The study examines two scenarios. The baseline scenario projects the creation of 3,000 new direct jobs by 2032 as a result of the construction of new facilities and expansions by ESMC and Infineon in northern Dresden. Indirect and induced effects will lead to a total of approximately 6,800 new jobs in the Dresden region. This will result in an influx of about 10,700 people, or 5,500 households, into the region.

The expansion scenario also takes into account expansion plans for the Dresden semiconductor cluster that have not yet been initiated, through 2035. A total of 4,500 direct jobs in semiconductor companies is projected. These will lead to approximately 10,200 new jobs in the Dresden region and, accordingly, an influx of about 15,600 people or 8,200 households.

About one-third of the new residents will move to the surrounding area, and two-thirds to the city of Dresden.

The study provides a detailed explanation of the assumptions and factors taken into account. It also offers insights into the regional and supraregional housing preferences of future employees. Furthermore, it places the quantitative results within the context of the 8th regionalized population projection for the Free State of Saxony.

The study in the context of other research
In recent years, various studies and surveys conducted by the Free State of Saxony/Saxony Economic Development Agency (iit study), Silicon Saxony e. V. (in-house studies), and the State Capital of Dresden/Erlebnisregion Dresden (CIMA study), conclusions have been drawn regarding the development of future job creation associated with the expansion or new establishment of companies in the semiconductor industry in northern Dresden. Although the studies share the same context (economic development in northern Dresden), their objectives, associated tasks, and scope (geographical area, time frames, level of detail, etc.) differ, and therefore they can only be compared to a limited extent.

Across the various studies, the total projected number of additional direct jobs ranges from 4,500 (expansion scenario) to 5,500. The total (direct + indirect/induced) projected additional jobs in the medium term (through 2035) range across the studies from 19,350 (expansion scenario) to 24,000 jobs.

In particular, due to the significantly smaller geographic scope of the CIMA study and the resulting application of a regionalization factor, the projected number of additional regional jobs in the "Dresden region" is lower than the total number of projected jobs.

Connection to the Housing Potential Study
Although the results of the CIMA study cannot be directly compared with those of the Housing Potential Study (KEM), clear trends can be identified. 

The projected future jobs and incoming workers are matched by a wide range of housing options across various categories. A significant portion of these are easily accessible (particularly by private vehicle) from the Airportpark in northern Dresden. In this regard, it can be concluded that there is sufficient potential in the region in existing properties, infill development sites, and developable land, which have varying planning statuses. Overall, therefore, the primary need is for a concerted effort to unlock the available potential in the region.

The study in german is available at the following link: CIMA study

(This is an automatic translation by DeepL Translator.)